Canadian Stock Market Timing 20190919

Well, good morning everyone and welcome to Thursday morning. It's Stephen Whiteside here from with today's look at Canadian stock market trends.


In the pre-market this morning things are very quiet out there. Stock index futures are flat, crude oil is higher, gold is slightly lower in the pre-market on Thursday morning. Let's start off with our look at the US market and the VIX is still on a sell signal that's supportive for higher stock prices. Things would turn around on Thursday if the VIX closed above $16.11.


Now, most of the major US indices look like this. We got early warning signals up there at the top of the panic zones, currently ranked at 10 for the SPDR S&P 500. We have been trying to break out to higher highs and have been unable to do so, so the big number we're looking for on Thursday is if the SPDR closes below 297.25, that would give us a new daily cell signal.


We are up at the highs of the year and if we can break out above those highs then 304.69 is our next target to the upside. Now, the queues look a little weaker at the moment and last week gave us a bearish reversal day, still trying to break out above that. If we could do that, then 196.88 is our next target to the upside. And then we've got the Russell 2000 and the Zacks Micro Cap both having nice rallies over the past couple of weeks, certainly nowhere near significant highs.


.VIX,VIX S&P 500

DIA,Dow Diamonds ETF


QQQ, Nasdaq 100 ETF

IWM, iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWC, iShares Russell Microcap ETF


Next up, let's take a look at the Canadian Market and we've been able to break through major resistance and a recent early warning signal and we've been able to break out and head towards the next weekly target. From last Friday's chart we were looking for move up to 16,875 as a next target. This week we've moved up to that level and stopped. If we can break through just above the 16,875 level is 17,000, which is a big round number and could act as a target and an area of resistance, otherwise mathematically, our next target is 17,031.


Now looking at the TSX itself, the TSX had an inside day yesterday. The TSX 60 didn't, but looks pretty similar than any of the other corresponding charts, whether you're looking at the Vanguard or the Horizon BetaPro, ETF or the iShares for the TSX 60, they're all going to look pretty similar. If you're playing the Horizon BetaPro 2x ETF, we had the opportunity to take money off the table at 41.41. If we can take out that high, then 42.19 comes into play.


Next up, let's walk through some of the major sectors that we follow, starting with the banks and the banks have been able to push out above the triple top that we saw during June and July, and so we've had a very nice run. TD's had a nice move, it's the most actively traded Canadian Bank on Wednesday, but some of the other banks have been able to out those previous highs such as Bank of Nova Scotia and CIBC and the Royal Bank is starting to push out above the previous highs.


Looking at the energy sector, we've had a really nice run here, but we've run into resistance at an open gap. That is also true for some of the stocks, so we're nowhere near a sell signal on Thursday, but if you look at the most actively traded energy stock, which is Encana, right at the top of the most active list, you can see that our next target was 7.81 but we ran into the open gap and that has held us in check so far. Doesn't guarantee a sell signal here, but certainly traders have run out of momentum at the moment. We need to close on Thursday below $6.23 to give us a new daily sell signal.


Then looking at the gold sector, we've come down to an area of support and mathematically it's 234.38, you can see that we traded along that level back in July, which makes it a nice level of support. If that breaks, then of course we have these lows from early August, but you can see the support along the 218.75 level. And then right below that there's an open gap here from back in June, which could eventually act as a price magnet, but right now we're holding support at 234.38, in fact we're still on a sell signal of course, but the most actively traded gold stock from Wednesday's trading action was actually Kinross, which generated a buy signal back on Tuesday. And then we've got Barrick trading in the channel for the past couple of days, a close above $24.3 would give us a buy signal for Barrick on Thursday.


And let's finish off today's presentation looking at Marijuana Stocks. Second day of a sell signal unfortunately, the most actively traded marijuana stock from Wednesday's trading action is Aurora Cannabis, third day of a sell signal here inside day on Wednesday. And then our last chart in the morning is CannTrust and it has been beaten down for a long time, making another new low on Wednesday.


Okay folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. It looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open this morning. The VIX is still on a sell signal that is supportive for higher stock prices. Have a great day, and the next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday and at that time we'll look at protecting your portfolio.


Stephen Whiteside


S&P/TSX Composite index (^GSPTSE)

S&P/TSX 60 Index (TX60.TS)

Vanguard FTSE Canada Index ETF (VCE.TO)

iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF (XIU.TO)

BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 2x Daily Bull ETF (HXU.TO)


S&P/TSX Equal Weight Diversified Banks Index (^SPTSXEWD)

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO)

The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO)

Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO)


S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (^SPTTEN)

Encana Corporation (ECA.TO)


S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (^SPTTGD)

Kinross Gold Corporation (K.TO)

Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO)


Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (HMMJ.TO)

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB.TO)

CannTrust Holdings Inc. (TRST.TO)


Canadian Stock Market Timing