Stock Market Trends 20190827

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Well, good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday morning. It's Stephen Whiteside here from with today's look at US stock market trends.


In the pre-market this morning, stock index, futures and commodities are slightly above fair value. So, so far it does look like we are going to see some buying at the open on Tuesday morning. For the rest of the week it should be fairly quiet, we're looking at the month end, which has a bullish bias to it, and we're also looking at a three day weekend, which also has a bullish bias to it, so we're not expecting a lot of downward pressure between now and the end of the week. Of course, it would be extremely bullish if we could take out the recent highs, but so far, I'm not expecting that to happen. Monday turned out to be an inside day and we should expect to see several of those before the end of the week.


With no major trend changes on Monday, we should be able to walk you through forty charts in under three minutes. Looking at the VIX, the VIX pulled back into the channel yesterday, we need to close below $17.05 to give us a sell signal on Tuesday. That would certainly be supportive for higher stock prices, but then when you walk through all the other charts, whether you're looking at the major indexes or the Sector SPDR ETFs, we had an inside day yesterday. So a day of indecision for the Dow Diamonds, for the SPDR ETF, for the Qs, for the Russel 2000 and for the Zacks Micro Cap.


So the first tell on what's going to happen next is a break out or a break down of Friday's trading arrange, and in the pre-market this morning, we are going to be trading higher, but certainly nowhere near Friday's highs.


So walk you through those Sector SPDR ETFs, as you walk through them, they're inside days, whether you're looking at energy, or financials, or healthcare or home building, they're all inside days or days of indecision. The only one that's of interest to me is the semiconductors and we closed near the low of the day, so right down at support here. Compare that to technology which closed near the high of the day, so there might be some continued weakness in the chip sector. Then looking at transports in inside day, inside day for utilities.


Then we walk through the mining sector, we saw an inside day yesterday for coal miners. No change in trend for copper miners, closing at the low of the day. Gold miners closed unchanged on Monday after moving higher during the day. Similar situation for the silver miners, which actually closed up a penny on the day. Then looking at the metals themselves, we have the GLD make a new high for this move on Monday. Then we had palladium up on the day, we had silver making a new high.

And then looking at the energy sector. Crude oil traded lower yesterday, down a penny on the day. It's up in the pre-market this morning and we need to see it close above 11.59 to give us a buy signal on Tuesday. No change in trend for gasoline, no change in trend for natural gas.


Looking at currencies. We've got the US Dollar index on a sell signal. Nice big recovery yesterday. Similar situation for the Euro, which is on a buy signal, but slipped nicely yesterday. And then the Canadian Dollar, still on a sell signal, no change in trend on Monday.


Let's finish off with bonds. And bonds had a nice reversal day yesterday, making a new high and then closing lower on the day. We'll have to see if we get fall through to the downside on Tuesday. No change in interest rates of course. And then we've got the TLT pulling back, still on a buy signal. We had an inside day yesterday for emerging markets, the emerging market bonds closing higher on the day. And then junk bonds, fairly quiet trading there yesterday, closing down on the day, but still on a buy signal.


Okay, folks. That is all for this morning's presentation. Since I started the presentation the futures have popped. Dow futures currently up 80 points, so it certainly does look like we are going to see some buying at the open on Tuesday morning. Now it's all noise until we break out above Friday's high or we break down below Friday's low. So don't get too excited about the futures being up in the pre-market, doesn't really tell us too much at this point. Have a great day, and the next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning, and at that time we'll take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.


Stephen Whiteside


Featured in today's video;


.VIX, VIX S&P 500

DIA, Dow Diamonds


QQQ, Nasdaq 100 ETF

IWM, iShares Russell 2000

IWC, iShares Russell Microcap Index

XLY, SPDR Consumer Discretionary

XLP, SPDR Consumer Staples

XLE, SPDR Energy

XLF, SPDR Financial

XLV, SPDR Health Care

XHB, SPDR Homebuilders

XLI, SPDR Industrials

XLB, SPDR Materials

XLRE, SPDR Real Estate

XRT, SPDR Retail

XSD, SPDR Semiconductor ETF

XLK, SPDR Technology

XTN, SPDR Transportation ETF

XLU, SPDR Utility


COPX, Copper Miners ETF

GDX, MV Gold Miners

SIL, Silver Miners

GLD, SPDR Gold Shares

PALL, ETFS Palladium

SLV, iShares Silver Trust

USO, United States Oil

UGA, United States Gasoline

UNG, United States Natural Gas

DX.F, US Dollar Index

CU.F, Euro FX

CD.F, Canadian Dollar

US.F, 30 Y US T Bonds

.TYX, 30 Y US T Bonds yield

TLT, iShares Lehman 20 Year T-Bond

JNK, SPDR High Yield Bond ETF

EMB, iShares Emerg Markets Bond

XBB.TO, iShares CDN Bond Universe Bond