Stock Market Trends 20190910

Well, good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday morning. It's Stephen Whiteside here from the with today's look at US Stock Market trends. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are below fair value. Crude oil's higher while gold is lower in the premarket on Tuesday morning. Now, the market has certainly had a nice pop off last week's lows, but I have to say the confidence is low that we're going to get higher from here. Certainly there's a couple of sectors we need to keep an eye on and we'll take a look at those in a second. But the VIX, still on a sell signal that's supportive for higher stock prices, having trouble breaking down below $15 and we actually closed higher on the day yesterday, even though the DOW and the S&P 500 closed higher on Monday. A little pullback in the NASDAQ and then we saw money go back into the mid cap, small cap and micro cap stocks. We've got a lot more stocks on buy signals this week than last week, but we're not seeing the type of follow through that we would like to see.


Now, money is leaving the gold sector with the GDX on it's third day of a sell signal. Coming off the top of the panic zones, early warning signal went off. Then money is going into financial services. We've had a nice big pop off the bottom of the panic zones and it looks like we're still heading for higher prices here. The pro's not that enthusiastic. That's the blue line over here, so a little concerned about how far we can run or how long we will run in financial services. And then looking at the energy sector, a nice move off the bottom of the panic zone so far. Pros a little more enthusiastic here. So just notice what the pros are doing here and then we'll be looking at the pros for some additional stocks and see what they're not doing with those stocks.


There we are looking for $25 as our next target to the upside. Mathematically speaking, $28.13 is the next target above that. But if we go back here, we'll notice that we didn't make $28.33 in June and we're still dealing with this open gap that was foreign back here in may. So the open gap is still resistance, so really the target above $25 is the June high. Looking down, we need to close below $21.41, not expecting that to happen. Crude oil is up in the premarket this morning. Now looking at the Fang stocks and we're looking for these stocks to lead the market higher. And you can see that we are still projecting higher prices here for Facebook. Two lines up takes us back up to $200. That is certainly a realistic move. Unfortunately, the pros are not that interested in moving Facebook higher at the moment so we can still go higher, but it's going to be a struggle.


Looking down on Tuesday, we need to close below $183.43 to give us a sell signal for Facebook. Looking at Amazon, projecting higher prices here. Two lines up takes us up to $1,937.50 and then of course we've got our little open gap above that which could act as a price target, a magnet and then also an area of resistance on the way back up to $2,000. Again, the pros not showing any enthusiasm here for Amazon. On Tuesday, we're looking for a close below $1,787.10. Then looking at Netflix. Netflix of course led the tech stocks lower. It was the first to go and it is still down at the bottom of the panic zones.


A quick personal story about Netflix. I canceled my subscription about six months ago and I've never heard from them since. On the other hand, a we bought a new vehicle which came with a free Sirius XM subscription, so I had to cancel the one in the previous vehicle 'cause we got rid of that one and got a new vehicle. And since then, in fact about a couple of days after I canceled my subscription, they were contacting me, giving me a 50% discount. I didn't need it of course. I've heard from them regularly ever since. Netflix doesn't want anything to do with me now that I've canceled my subscription. They've made no attempt whatsoever to recover my membership. Sirius, on the other hand, very aggressively wants me back as a customer. They don't realize that we've moved to the membership to another vehicle and we will be back to subscribe later after the free subscription in our new vehicle runs out.


We traded through the upper channel line yesterday. Did not close above it. We're still looking for close above $296.62 for Netflix. There's a stock in which the pros have not bothered to take control yet and we could actually get a buy signal here without the pros taking control. You don't need the pros to take control to have a buy signal come true. What you do need is for the pros to come buy in the next few days after that buy signal and start to participate in the up move. Otherwise, you and I together can not get a stock, especially a NASDAQ 100 stock, to move up on its own. We need the pros, the institutions to come in and want to own the stock as well.


Looking two lines up from here takes you up to $328.13. If we take out last week's low, which is certainly possible, then look two lines down to $250, that would be our next target to the downside. Now Google is up at the top of the panic zones right now. Having trouble getting above $218.75. Pros have no interest in running this stock up at the moment. That of course could change on a moment's notice, but from the data we have today based on yesterday's close, that's what it looks like. On Tuesday, we're looking for close below $1,179.14 to kick us out of Google.


A couple of other tech stocks. We always like to look at Apple computer, currently ranked a 10 up at the top of the panic zone. Still projecting higher prices here. If we can take out the July high, then $225 comes into play. Pros, no interest in running this up ahead of the new product announcement. We are on a buy signal right now. That would change on Tuesday with the close and below $207.54. So expecting a lot of volatility here with the announcement. And of course you want to have a sell order in up there at $225 ahead of the announcement.


Let's finish off today's presentation looking at Tesla. Still projecting higher prices here. We're stuck at $234.38. We are trying to break out and head towards $250, but notice that we failed just below that level in July. There's nice big open gap there. We tried to fill it in July and failed. So that is now a major area of resistance for Tesla on the way back up. The pros have not taken control, so even though we're on a buy signal, the pros still haven't taken control and that tells me the buy signal's probably not going to work out too well over the next few days. But we're on a buy signal right now, looking for the pros to come in on Tuesday. We need to close below $220.35 to give us a sell signal on Tuesday. And of course, that number is going to change daily. The lower channel line is pointing up and so if we don't get a sell signal on Tuesday, on Wednesday, that breakdown point to the $220.35, that's going to be higher as the lower channel continues to move higher daily.


Okay folks, that is all for today's presentation. Futures are lower in the premarket this morning, not that big a deal. We are looking for the pros to show up and take some of these stocks higher. If not this little reversal that we got from last week is going to fade fairly quickly. Have a great day. Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning and at that time we'll take a closer look at the Canadian Stock Market.

Stephen Whiteside

GDX, MV Gold Miners

XLF, SPDR Financial

XOP, SPDR Oil/Gas Exploration

.VIX, VIX S&P 500

DIA, Dow Diamonds


QQQ, Nasdaq 100 ETF

IWM, iShares Russell 2000

IWC, iShares Russell Microcap Index

AAPL, Apple


FB, Facebook

GOOGL, Alphabet

NFLX, Netflix

TSLA, Tesla Motors


Stock Market Trends