Stock Market Trends 20191008

Stock Market Trends

Good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday morning. It's Stephen Whiteside here from the with today's look at US stock market trends. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures have been down all morning. Dow futures currently down 175 points, so we are looking for some selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Now, the trend looks like it's going to continue on Tuesday. We had some positive action on Monday before reversing. You can see the VIX traded down to the lower channel line yesterday before closing higher on the day, so on Tuesday we're looking for a close on the VIX below 16.35. That would give us a daily cell signal, and that would be supportive for higher stock prices. Unfortunately with what we're seeing in the pre-market this morning, we don't expect that to happen on Tuesday. The Dow Diamonds traded up in the channel yesterday before reversing. And the SPY ETF closed in the channel once again.

Now, the NASDAQ traded up over the upper channel line intraday before closing lower on the day, so we are seeing a lot more strength in technology stocks relative to the rest of the market right now, but still no daily buy signal. There's the Russell 2000. The iShares for the Russell 2000 and the iShares for the microcap sector both still on daily sell signals. Now if you look at the most active ETFs yesterday, the second most actively traded ETF on Monday was the iShares for the emerging markets. Still on a sell signal here. A fairly quiet trading on Monday. Then we've got Gold Miners still on a sell signal, and we've got the VIX still on a buy signal, so the TVIX's still on a buy signal. No change in trend there.

Now, I don't want to walk through all the sector SPDR ETFs this morning, just a couple energy. You can see the energy ETF drove up to the open gap yesterday and reversed, so that open gap is still acting as resistance. Not so for the financials. They closed that open gap on Friday. On Monday we traded up into the channel before reversing and closing and below the lower channel line, so I'm not expecting a buy signal on Tuesday. We're seeing a lot more strength, as I mentioned earlier, in anything technology related, and so the semiconductors have been up in the channel for the past couple of days. The technology ETF itself has been up on Friday. It traded up to the upper channel line on Monday. It traded through the upper channel line before closing lower on the day, so still waiting for a buy signal there. We'd need to close above 80.60 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. Then looking at the transports. Once again, the gap from last week is acting as resistance.

Next up, let's move from ETFs to stocks. Starting off with Cleveland-Cliffs, which was the most actively traded stock on Monday, it's traded up to the upper channel line three days in a row without closing above it. We're looking for a close on Tuesday above 7.49 to give us a buy signal. Advanced Micro-Devices traded up to the upper channel line in reverse, closing near the low of the day. We need to close above 29.56 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal there. No joy for Bank of America, no joy for General Electric. Apple made a new high yesterday before reversing. Still closing up on the day just a nickel. I've taken money off the table up there at 2.25. Of course, the upper channel line continues to move higher daily. Looking for a close on Tuesday below 219.68. Not expecting that to happen.

Then we're looking at Ford. No joy there. Still on a cell signal. Then we've got Itaú Unibanco is still on a sell signal. No change there. No change first SNAP. Then we've got Freeport still on a cell signal. No change there. A lot of these stocks, you're going to be watching two things. First of all, do they hold last week's low? Then a lot of the stocks, and this is just an example, you're looking to see if we hold the summer lows, or if those break, that's a very bearish sign for that particular symbol.

Let's move from stocks to commodities. The GLD still on a sell signal. No change there. We've got Palladium still on a buy signal. That would change on Tuesday with a close below 155.84. Then the SLV, still on a sell signal. No change there. No change in trend for crude oil and gasoline. I don't want to see a change in trend in gasoline. We need to close on Tuesday above 29.73. Gasoline was up on the day yesterday. No change in trend inside day for natural gas on Monday.

Okay folks, that is all for Tuesday morning. As you can see, really no work to do on Tuesday. We'll wait and see what the market does. Obviously, if you're short any positions or if you're long the bear ETFs, you've got orders in above the market right now looking for those to get filled. Otherwise, we just have to sit and wait and see how things work out. It's not unusual to see selling in October, so there's nothing unusual going on here just yet. Of course, after we get through the selling in October, we'll look for buying opportunities into year end. Have a great day, folks. Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. At that time, I'm going to take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

Stephen Whiteside

EEM, iShares Emerg Mkts
GDX, MV Gold Miners
XLF, SPDR Financial
.VIX, VIX S&P 500
DIA, Dow Diamonds
QQQ, Nasdaq 100 ETF
IWM, iShares Russell 2000
IWC, iShares Russell Microcap Index
XLY, SPDR Consumer Discretionary
XLP, SPDR Consumer Staples
XLE, SPDR Energy
XLF, SPDR Financial
XSD, SPDR Semiconductor ETF
XLK, SPDR Technology
XTN, SPDR Transportation ETF
CLF, Cliffs Natural Resources
AMD, Advanced Micro Devices
BAC, Bank of America
GE, General Electric
AAPL, Apple
F, Ford Motor
ITUB, Itau Unibanco
SNAP, Snap
FCX, Freeport-McMoRan