US Stock Market Trends 20190716

Well, good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday morning. It's Stephen Whiteside here from with today's look at US Stock Market Trends. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are trading slightly above fair value, so far it looks like we're going to see some buying at the open on Tuesday morning.

Now, if you were with us on the weekend, we touched on the fact that today is a new moon cycle. We've got a full moon, and depending on where you are in the world, pretty well anywhere outside of North America, there's going to be a partial eclipse tonight, so that could be a catalyst for a short-term market top. We've got the VIX S&P 500 still on a sell signal. That, of course, is supportive for higher stock prices. That would change on Tuesday with a close above $14.26. Then we're looking at the major indices and the DIA, Dow Diamonds ETF,, the SPY, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and the QQQ, Nasdaq 100 ETF,all made new highs yesterday, while the rest of the market went in the opposite direction. Now, it's not a major decline, but it's just odd to see that the midcaps, small caps IWM, iShares Russell 2000 ETF, and microcap stocks IWC, iShares Russell Microcap ETF, all traded lower on Monday. Looking at the Sector SPDR ETFs, we've got health care XLV, SPDR Health Care ETF, still on a sell signal, while materials XLB, SPDR Materials ETF and transports XTN, SPDR Transportation ETF have come back and are now back on daily buy signals.

Let's move from sectors to stocks. AAPL, Apple is still the most watched US stock in our database. Now, since the last low-risk buying opportunity happened and you can see we traded through the bottom of the panic zones, pressure zone formed, then momentum changed, and we got a new buy signal. Since then, we've had two early warning signals that have not led to anything. We certainly traded back into the channel. We traded through the lower channel line a couple times, but so far we have not closed below that lower channel line, so we're still looking for higher prices here. Unfortunately, the pros don't look too excited about Apple, and so Apple rising as part of the technology sector rising more than it's leading the technology sector higher. Now, our next target to the upside is 212.50. That's where we peaked out back in late April, but remember as we came down we formed an open gap. So the bottom of that open gap could be our next target to the upside at 208.84. Looking down on Tuesday, we need to close below $200.69 for Apple to generate a daily sell signal.

Moving to the FANG stocks, starting with FB, Facebook. No new recent early warning signal there. Our next target to the upside is $206.25. Of course, the top of our projected range is $212.50. That is also our next weekly target. Then if you look back to the last summer, that's where we peaked out a year ago, so just remember that because there's going to be a lot of people who bought up at that level last summer who will be excited to get rid of their shares and get all of their money back so just keep that in the back of your mind. We've got Facebook certainly leading the technology sector higher. You can see what the pros are doing right now. Looking down on Tuesday, we need to close below $195.55 to give us a new daily sell signal for Facebook.

Next up, we're looking at AMZN, No new early warning signal. We did have a bearish reversal signal a couple of days ago. We're trying to get to $2,062.50. Pretty well stuck at $2,000. We traded above that yesterday but having trouble breaking away from $2,000. If we look at the weekly chart, remember this is a weekly chart based on last Friday's close. Our next mathematical target is $2,125. But look back to what happened this time last summer, this is where we peaked out, so just be aware of that. Looking down on Tuesday, we need to close below $1,951.64 to generate a new daily sell signal. Not expecting that to happen. Of course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.

Next up, we're looking at NFLX, Netflix. Two early warning signals put an end to the rally in Netflix, and we're now back on a daily sell signal as of Monday's close. Last up for the FANG group is GOOGL, Alphabet. Google's still on a buy signal here. Our next mathematical target was $1,156.25. Of course, a lot of you rounded that down to 1,150 and got filled yesterday. Still looking for resistance at $1,156.25. Looking down on Tuesday, we're looking for a close below $1,117.20 to give us a new sell signal for Google. Last up, of course, not a FANG stock but we've always included it, and that is TSLA, Tesla Motors. Tesla currently ranked a 10 up at the top of the panic zones. We hit 250 yesterday, so you got orders filled. Congratulations. Looking down on Tuesday, we're looking for a close below $230.88 to give us a sell signal. Certainly not expecting that to happen on Tuesday.

Let's finish off today's presentation with a one-60 minute chart. First sign of something new is happening on Tuesday is an hourly close on the SPX S&P 500 cash index below $3,008.21. If we see that happen, that would tell us that this rally to the upside is over on a short-term basis. Okay, folks, thank you very much for your time and attention. It's been a pleasure. Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. At that time we'll take a closer look at the Canada stock market.



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