US Stock Market Trends 20190730

Good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday morning. It's Stephen Whiteside here from with today's look at US stock market trends. Before we get started, just a quick reminder, we're going to be away next week, so no charts, no videos next week.


Today is the start of a two day fed meeting, things should be fairly quiet. Stock index futures are lower in the pre-market. That has a lot to do with what's going on in Europe. They're down, but certainly not enough to set off any alarm bells. While stock index futures are lower, commodities are slightly higher in the pre-market.


Lets look at yesterday's trading action, the VIX moved higher and we're looking for a close on Tuesday above $13.65. Inside day for the S&P 500, so a day of indecision. A little more weakness in the NASDAQ, but it did recover going into the close. And so we dipped our toe into the channel and then came back. Inside day for midcaps with the Russell 2000, and an inside day for micro-cap stocks.


In the news this morning we've got the British pound making a fresh two year low, so that's great for anybody who wants to go to the UK this summer.

I am constantly being asked about new stocks, IPO stocks that are in the news, the big headline stocks. Unfortunately most of them, when people are excited about them, don't have enough historical data for us to put in our database. And the ones I'm going to show you this morning are not even close to having enough data, but they're in the news. And so we're talking about Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND). It's in the news this morning. It's down in the pre-market. Down 13%. That's not enough to give us a sell signal, whether you're using our right side chart or you're just using a trendline. Not a lot of damage. Even though it does sounds like a big number for this particular stock at this particular time, it's not a big deal just yet.

Then CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), we don't have enough data to do anything with that. Then we've got Lyft. Lyft will be the first of these stocks that'll go into the database, but not anytime soon. It's one thing to make daily charts, we also have to make weekly charts and so there's Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) generating a sell signal as of Monday's close. Next up, we're looking at Pinterest, Inc. (PINS). Pinterest is on a buy signal right now, but just treading water. That would change on Tuesday with a close below 26.41 and then we've got Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER). Uber's on a buy signal, not going anywhere. We need to close below 43.18 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal there.

I'm not going to be updating these charts. I'm just showing you what they look like today. The next time there'll be updated, it'll be a while until any of these are in our database and then let's finish off with ZOOM Technologies, Inc. (ZOOM). Zoom traded through the lower channel line yesterday but did not close below it. We need to close below $94.16 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal.

Next up this morning, let's take a look at my five stocks. I'm either long or short these stocks at any given time and looking at Apple Inc. (AAPL), currently ranked a 10. We're trying to get to 212.50 but of course we have that open gap up there from early May and it has now been filled. The high of the day yesterday was 210.64. That of course fills the gap and so certainly this is the time and place to be taking some money off the table up here. We are trying to get to 212.50 but that gap might just act as resistance on the downside. We'd get kicked out of this stock and go short with a close below 205.13 and of course if that doesn't get hit today, that lower channel line's is going to continue to move higher daily.

CME Group Inc. (CME) coming off the top of the panic zones. Early warning signal went off. We're on a sell signal right now. We couldn't break out above a 206.25. We've come down one line. Next target is a 193.75 and you can see there's lots of support there. If that breaks, then it's 187.50. Pros are about to give up control and there we are on a sell signal already.

Looking at a Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) we got a nice big pop on Friday, no fall through to the upside on Monday. You can see that we had an early warning signal at the top of the panic zone chart. We did start to pull back, traded through the lower channel line for a couple of days, but did not close below the lower channel line. And so we've got that nice pop on Friday. And of course if you had orders in above that level, anything that was above that level got to basically, got filled on Friday and you got filled at the open. 212.50, big round number, big targets to the upside. Of course there's an open gap over there and we're having trouble filling that at the moment. Trying to get up to 1271.71 which was the top of that open gap and got as high as 1263.39 the other day. Our next target of course is 1,312.50 on the weekly charts, but if you look back at this time last year, this is the time and place where this stock peaked and a failed to break out.

We saw breakout earlier in the year, but it didn't last very long and then we gapped lower. There's a lot of sad people, people who bought up at the to the 1,281.25 level and want to get their money back. This is the time and place for them to do that.

Looking at The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS). It's been a nice ride since the start of June. If you look at our weekly chart, our next target to the upside is 234.38 but if you look back to the left, you can see where we had eight or nine months where we traded between the two channel lines and so there is a lot of resistance up at this level, so not expecting Goldman Sachs to be able to break through this very quickly. Looking down on Tuesday, we need to close below 214.78 to give us a sell signal for Goldman Sachs.

And my last stock, of course, is Visa Inc. (V). Visa had an early warning signal, which it's traded through. We're trying to get to 187.50. Haven't been able to do that just yet, but that's the top of our projected trading range. On the downside, we're looking for a close below 179.71. That's what would be needed to generate a sell signal on Tuesday. Not expecting that to happen. And of course that lower channel line will continue to move higher daily.

Last up this morning, let's take a look at the major commodity ETFs. Starting with the United States Oil Fund, LP (USO), we need to close on Tuesday above $11.93 to give us a buy signal there. Next up we're looking at gasoline. United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA), we're looking for close above $30.95 to give us a buy signal on Tuesday. And then we have United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) moving lower, down 2% yesterday. Of course, the flip side of that, if you're looking at the 3X bear VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas (DGAZ), we are up but just under 6% on the day on Monday.

Looking at the metals, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is still on a buy signal. Has been trading in the channel for the past few days. We're looking for close below 133.35 to give us a sell signal on Tuesday. Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) is back on a buy signal as of Monday's close and there's silver. iShares Silver Trust (SLV), nice big early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. We're up at the top of the panic zones. Currently ranked a nine. We've pulled back a bit, but not into the channel. And so we're looking for a close on Tuesday below $15.05 to give us a sell signal for the SLV. This is the time and place you should be taking some money off the table.

Okay, folks, that is all for Tuesday morning. Have a great day. The next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning, and at that time we'll take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.


Stephen Whiteside


Nasdaq Market Timing Service